“We want a new space race – space races are exciting”.
Elon Musk after successful launch of Falcon Heavy.
Background
China and the United States are fierce competitors in economics, technology, military and recently in space exploration. Does this competition imply a new space race patterned on the Cold War race between the US and the former Soviet Union? This question along with a brief overview of China’s ascendency as a space faring nation is the subject of this essay.
What is a Space Race?
A race requires at least two participants both driving towards the same goal, with the winner the first one to reach this goal.
Until the last few years the United States has not had a stated goal for its manned space program. Instead, it focused on maintaining the International Space Station, robotic missions in low earth orbit as well as Mars and the outer solar system. Recently, a goal of returning to the moon with a mixed gender crew by 2024 has been established. The languishing Space Launch Systems’ Artemis (SLS) and Orion crew capsule have received additional funding and support from the current Administration. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is now leading the way by involving private companies such as SpaceX, Blue Origin and Dynetics to develop landers for the Artemis lunar program. China’s space agency continues to project a lunar landing in the 2030’s. Based on just this information alone, and assuming that the timetables are accurate, there really is no race between the U.S. and China. The absence of a space race however, does not mean there is no competition between the Super Powers.
The Birth of a Space Power
The Chinese space program has grown in complexity and capability at an astounding rate. China initiated its own human spaceflight program in 1992. The spacecraft, called Shenzhou, was modeled on Russia’s time-tested Soyuz design, but relying heavily on Chinese-developed technologies and manufacturing. Following four years of unmanned tests, the CNSA launched China’s first taikonaut (astronaut), Yang Liwei, into orbit on Oct. 15, 2003. In so doing, it became the third country—after the Soviet Union and the United States—to achieve human spaceflight.
Beginning in 2003 with the flight of Shenzhou 5 there have been six LEO crewed missions, the longest being a little over 32 days in October of 2016. The next mission Shenzhou 12 is planned for 2021 and will begin construction of the Tianhe-1 space station.
Meanwhile, robotic spacecraft have taken center stage, with successful landings on the moon and a new Mars lander recently launched.
As for military space, back in 2007 China demonstrated its anti satellite (ASAT) capability in low earth orbit by targeting and destroying a decommissioned weather satellite leaving behind a cloud of potentially hazardous junk. In 2013 China a robotic arm on the SY-7 satellite demonstrated the capability of grabbing onto another satellite.
Other notable achievements include deploying a Peoples Liberation Army Strategic Support Force training with ASAT capability.
China deserves praise and credit for developing an aggressive space program and successfully executing its plans. These developments are good for space exploration generally, because it spurs increased competition and rivalry, still not a space race.
Ambitious Plans – China
Heavy launch capability is currently under development in China. The successful launch of the Long March 5B is an example. The mission also included the first test flight of the new prototype successor to the Shenzhou. This new, unnamed vehicle exceeded expectations and returned safely to earth.
The heavy lift Long March 9, said to be capable of lifting 140 metric tons into low earth orbit or a 50 ton spacecraft into a lunar transfer orbit, is set to fly around 2030.
The Tianwen-1 Mars Orbiter and Lander recently launched from the Hainan Launch Center and if all goes well will enter orbit around Mars during February, 2021. The Lander is expected to touchdown on the Martian surface two to three months later.
Meanwhile, planning continues for the Chang’e 5 lunar sample mission slated to blast-off from the Hainan Launch Complex later this year atop a Long March 5B. This mission will collect up to 2 kilograms of lunar rock from the western edge of the near side of the moon. The samples will then be transferred to the ascent vehicle and lift off and dock with an orbiter. The orbiter will then deliver the samples back to earth.
China is also investing in other capabilities such as space-based solar power technology, the BeiDou satellite navigation system, as well as satellite constellations similar to the Starlink program.
Ambitious Plans – United States
Space exploration in the United States is just not governmental, but a mix of private industry and government.
The United States in a controversial decision combined all military space based operations into a new United States Space Force. This organization does report up through the US Air Force and has been derided by political opponents and the general public. However, it appears to have counterparts within the militaries of China and Russia.
NASA continues to develop the Artemis with the first hot-fire test of the rocket planned for October and first flight now scheduled for late 2021. Whether this is an accurate date is questionable, based on prime contractor Boeing’s past performance. The Artemis has been consistently over budget and late throughout its lifetime.
Meanwhile in the private sector, the Falcon Heavy is already operational but not man-rated. SpaceX continues with rapid development of its Starship launcher, capabilities and operational date not yet clear.
Blue Origin’s New Glenn, a reusable heavy lifter is planned to fly in early 2021 from Cape Canaveral’s launch complex 36.
Numerous other private space companies have either flown or are planning, notably Rocket Lab (NZ and US), Texas based Firefly Aerospace, the Virgin Companies (UK and US), and Sierra Nevada aerospace.
NASA continues its main mission of space science with the Mars 2020 lander and rover, and the James Webb space telescope missions planned. As of this writing, Mars 2020 has not yet launched.
Summary
Currently, the US has more than 3 times the number of satellites in orbit than China. This number does not include the 540 +/- Starlink swarm from Elon Musk’s communication venture. The worlds most powerful booster is the Falcon Heavy. Additionally, it is reusable something no other entity can state. From a human flight perspective, based on he number of manned launches Russia is more capable than the US and China. With the successful launch of the first Crew Dragon ferrying two astronauts to the International Space Station and projected flight of Boeing’s Starliner next year, that situation will be changing.
There is no sign that China is trying to outspend the United States. Its space budget is not publicly disclosed, but even the more generous estimates put it at less than one-quarter of what the US government spends on space.
Sustainability matters more to China. The Communist Party does not need to “beat” the US in order to impress the Chinese public and burnish its credentials as the champion of Chinese civilization. It just needs to demonstrate progress in achieving new milestones. Neither does China need to outclass the US in its military space capabilities. It just needs a convincing deterrent.
The US, meanwhile, is not racing because it is the leader by a wide margin and cannot therefore achieve a political consensus behind a need to rush.
NASA has stated in its “60 Years and Counting” publication – Unlike the way the space program started, NASA will not be racing a competitor. Rather, we will build upon the community of industrial, international, and academic partnerships forged for the space station. Commercial companies will play an increasing role in the space industry: launching rockets and satellites, transporting cargo and crew, building infrastructure in low-Earth orbit. NASA will continue to be a global leader in scientific discovery, fostering opportunities to turn new knowledge into things that improve life here on Earth.
Conclusion
As stated above, “A race requires at least two participants both driving towards the same goal, with the winner the first one to reach this goal”. Given this description it is safe to say that the United States and China are not engaged in a Cold War style space race, but are engaged in intense competition.
About the Author
Carl Rossi
Contributing author to http://WestEastSpace.com
The author is a retired Supply Chain/Logistics expert currently living in central Texas, USA. His passions include space exploration and fast sports cars. While his passion for fast sports cars has been satisfied, space exploration remains a burning ambition.
Carl Rossi holds an MBA in International Business and has been certified in Supply Chain Management, Logistics and Transportation by world wide industry organizations. He has been responsible for managing operations globally and has travelled extensively throughout Europe and Asia.
Retirement has allowed the author the opportunity to follow space extensively while also producing programs for community radio stations in Georgetown and Killeen, Texas. These shows can be heard online as well – Freeform on http://radiogeorgetown.org, Wednesdays at 6:00 PM central US time or 2300 hrs UTC; The Softer Side can be heard on http://knct.org anytime on demand.
