Creating a Space for the Space Force

 By Blaine Curcio March 27, 2020

Creating a Safe Space for the Space Force

Yesterday saw the first official launch of a military satellite under the United States Space Force, with the AEHF-6 and TDO-2 taking flight on an Atlas-V rocket. The USSF, formally established at the end of 2019, is an indication of the increasing importance of space in the context of national-level strategies. With that being said, as with any large, government-run entity, the Space Force has seen challenges in coming into its own.

That being the case, it was interesting to see one of the keynote speeches at SATELLITE 2020 was Lt. General David Thompson. Lt. General Thompson is Vice Commander of the Air Force Space Command, and was therefore able to provide a unique perspective for the challenges, opportunities, and strategy of the US Space Force.

The Space Force is not an Easy Sell

Lt. General Thompson’s speech began with an interesting story. Thompson admitted that he was not a historian, but that he prefers to learn from history and read a lot of non-fiction, history books, because “true stories are so interesting, that it seems pointless to read stories that are made up”. When considering the role of the Space Force, Lt. General Thompson looked to history. He told the story of 1947, in the years following World War II, when the United States was planning to create an Air Force, which up to that time had been a part of the Army. Lt. General Thompson said that in 1947, having just won World War II, many Americans already had a clear understanding of the value and importance of an Air Force—air power had been used to win the wars in Europe and the Pacific. Therefore, the creation of an Air Force, while a difficult challenge, was made easier because the average American had an understanding of the strategic importance and value of air power.

On the other hand, Lt. General Thompson pointed out that in the creation of the Space Force, very few Americans have an understanding of the strategic importance of space. This is for two reasons—first, we have not yet reached such an advanced stage of space technology to where it could be as important as air power in the 1940s, and second, most of the involvement that space does have in our everyday lives is invisible to the average person. For example, most people might not think about the use of satellites when they use satellite navigation themselves. Clearly, most people cannot appreciate the degree to which space is important for military uses, for example tracking missiles, monitoring troop movements, etc. Therefore, when creating a Space Force, it will be important to show people the importance of space for national security and strategic interests. Failure to do this will make it very hard to gain widespread public support for a Space Force.

Lt. General Thompson gave several examples of the importance of space during his keynote. The clearest example was another comparison with the United States during the end of World War II. Lt. General Thompson mentioned that at the end of World War II, the United States Air Force could fly 1,000 planes over any point in continental Europe, with 6-12 bombs on each plane. This meant that in any day, the USAF could drop 6,000-12,000 bombs on any place. During that time, only around 100 of the 6,000-12,000 bombs would land within 1 mile of their target. By comparison, Lt. General Thompson noted, a bombing of Libya in the mid-2010s involved 108 missiles fired by the United States. With the help of satellite navigation, all 108 missiles hit their target, with many of the missiles needing to adjust their flight path during flight. In short, by using space, the USAF is able to have much more efficient operations, while also minimizing damage to innocent civilians.

Commercialization is a Key

While the Space Force is obviously a US Military entity, Lt. General Thompson made it very clear that the Space Force hopes to allow for commercial space companies to grow and innovate. The Space Force hopes to encourage commercial innovation across several major areas, namely: 1) Commercial Satcom, 2) Remote Sensing, 3) National Security Space Launch, 4) Commercial SDA, and 5) Future Commercial Opportunities.

In trying to better utilize commercial resources, the Space Force notes several challenges. First, some elements of space will likely always be managed by the government or military, because there is not a commercial business case. One example would be satellite navigation constellations, whereby the constellation itself will probably always need to be financed by a government or military, after which time commercial companies can develop applications and services using the satellite navigation infrastructure. The second challenge is that the US military has a lot of space intelligence resources, but they are not always optimally organized. For example, the Space Force is currently being “carved out” from the Air Force, and as such, there is some degree of uncertainty about which organization will do which tasks. The Air Force may also be reluctant to allow some of their top intelligence people go to a different organization, even if that organization is related to the Air Force, and as a result, the Space Force may find it difficult to attract the very top talent.

Third, the Space Force needs to manage expectations with potential recruits. Lt. General Thompson stated that at least for the foreseeable future, joining the Space Force will not involve flying to space. Many young people hoping to join the Space Force are hopeful because they believe that they can live a sort of “real-life Star Wars” experience, and according to Lt. General Thompson, that is simply not the case. Therefore, the Space Force will need to pursue a balance between trying to attract the best and brightest military and intelligence personnel by offering challenging and rewarding work, while also making it clear what responsibilities the Space Force does and does not have. This will create a challenge particularly compared to commercial companies, that may be able to offer a more dynamic and exciting workplace, better opportunities for advancement, or both.

What Can we Learn from the Space Force?

Lt. General Thompson’s speech came at a very interesting time in the United States. The political environment is more uncertain than ever before, and the 2020 Presidential Election appears to be a wide-open race. This means that over the coming 12-24 months, we may see significant changes in US policies on a variety of issues, including taxes, healthcare, and military spending.

However, the Space Force, and space more generally, is likely to keep growing, no matter what the outcome of the election. Space is a small piece of the military budget, and while different political parties have different opinions on space, it is an area of increasing importance. With politicians likely to continue to support space, the biggest challenge for the Space Force may be convincing the public that they need a Space Force. With space still being very far from the lives of most Americans, it will require convincing to prove to voters that their money is well-spent on a Space Force, no matter how strategically important it might be.

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