China Space in 2019
By Blaine Curcio
December 18, 2019
2019 in China—Year in Review
It’s been a busy year in the Chinese space industry, one in which we have seen record-breaking valuations and funding rounds, new company creation and increased internationalization, and perhaps most importantly, a brilliant combination of space and pizza. But more on that later. As a teaser for the epic 2-part podcast recorded by my esteemed friend Jean Deville and I in mid-December, I’ve compiled some of my highlights from 2019 in the Chinese space industry.
The Acceleration of the Constellations—Just not in China (Yet)
While I may be in the minority in this, I would argue that one of the most potentially important events in the Chinese space industry in 2019 did not actually occur in China, but rather in the United States. That is, the significant acceleration of SpaceX’s StarLink, which launched 120 satellites in 2019 with maybe plans for one more launch before end of year. While StarLink remains far from commercial success, the acceleration has likely caught the attention of the powers that be in China, in a similar way to the successful landing of a Falcon-9 for the first time, shortly before regulators in China partially opened the space industry to private investment.
China’s major state-owned constellations have seen a relative lack of announcements in 2019, however following the rapid acceleration of StarLink during this year, I think it’s safe to say in 2020 will likely be a significant year for Chinese constellations, especially if StarLink ends up being able to launch 60 satellites every 2 weeks next year as planned. The fact that StarLink would remain very far from commercial success for several years after initial launches (probably) would not be a major stumbling block in China, in my opinion. That is to say, if StarLink can deploy a few hundred satellites in 2020, show some user growth and demonstrate some actually appealing and inexpensive terminals (all big “if’s”), it would likely be enough for China to significantly increase its investment into LEOs.
Indeed, some of the only major LEO announcements in 2019 involved the amount of production capacity coming online in 2020, namely 130 satellites per year from a facility in Tianjin to be used by Hongyan, and 120 satellites per year from the Wuhan Aerospace Industrial Base, to be used by Xingyun and Hongyun. While CASC and CASIC leadership are likely to remain cautious about LEOs in general, momentum by western counterparts would likely make the political support too much to resist. This would be compounded by an eventual sustained decrease in launch costs, particularly given the vertically integrated nature of CASC and CASIC as it pertains to constellations.
A New Type of Internationalization
2019 saw the continuation of a divergence within the Chinese space industry, that being the divergence of relations with the United States, which have declined, compared with those from much of the rest of the world, which have improved. In 2019, China made agreements or entered development phases of space cooperation with Egypt, Ethiopia, France, and Pakistan, among other countries. At the same time, commercial cooperation between private Chinese space companies and foreign counterparts also increased, albeit from a low base.
This was all in contrast to the relationship between China and the US in space, which remains tense although with some bright spots. 2019 saw the IAC conference—an academic/civilian space agency conference—held in Washington DC. Years past have seen the conference attended by a number of Chinese private space startups, in addition to the CNSA and occasionally other governmental organizations. At the IAC in Washington, there was a conspicuous last-minute absence of Wu Yanhua, Vice Administrator of the CNSA, from a keynote panel, with this having been due to a “visa problem”.
With that said, relations with the United States in space were not all bad, with the Sino-US Space Commercialization Workshop having been held in Changsha, China, during the 2019 China Space Day conference. The workshop represented an open and honest dialogue between representatives from the two sides space industries, including from the commercial sector, academia, and government. Several Chinese companies did ultimately attend IAC, and while StarLink is unlikely to get landing rights in China anytime soon, 2019 did also see the commencement of production at Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory.
Bringing Space to the Masses
I have been saying for some time that space is more generally popular in China than in the United States, however 2019 may have been the year that space really was brought to the masses. This was not a phenomenon specific to China, but is certainly more pronounced in the Middle Kingdom. 2019 has seen space featured at shopping malls, several films, both foreign and Chinese (though not necessarily limited to 2019) have become hugely successful in China, and there is increasing awareness of its space program by everyday people.
On a trip to Changsha, China in 2019, I was walking through the local Wanda Plaza, a brand of shopping mall developed by the Wanda Group, and one that is always considered one of the most “premier” malls in any city, with a concentration on tier-II and tier-III cities. In the Wanda Plaza, I came across a random space pod outside a Pizza Hut. On further examination, I realized that it was a space pod that was co-branded with Spacety—the local smallsat startup in Changsha—and Pizza Hut. I think the logic here is twofold, and this will be something to watch moving forward. 1) Kids like space stuff, kids like pizza, put the space pod at pizza hut to attract kids and thus families. More interesting though is 2) which I believe is that as an increasing number of Chinese parents have the resources to provide further education to their children, the job market has become more competitive. Space is a way of making aeronautical engineering cool, in a way that is very different from, for example, a Disney movie. As such, there will be higher likelihood for parents to encourage their children’s’ interest in space as compared to some other fads, which may lead to a broader cultural awareness of space in China.
Conclusions
For the purposes of brevity, and as I am writing several other year-end articles elsewhere, I will leave my end-of-year thoughts at this. If you’d like to hear more, check out the podcast, or find me on LinkedIn at #ChinaSpaceGuy. Happy listening, ad astra!
2 Comments
Blaine Curcio
Founder at Orbital Gateway Consulting
Blaine Curcio has spent most of his career working in the satellite communications and commercial space industry, with experience at satellite operator SES, and with a multiple industry consulting and research firms. Blaine has spent his entire career in Asia, and is a recognized expert on several topics related to China. This has included giving lectures on the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s macroeconomy, and the Chinese space industry. He regularly attends conferences throughout Asia as a speaker and moderator, and is a contributor to SpaceWatch.Global, Talk Satellite, and the Satellite Executive Briefing, among other industry publications.
Agreed
I am staffer in chinese space industry , and a father of two children. Space tech is cool and more and more parents in China would like to give their kids opportunities to contact it.
LEOs is the most popular topic in 2019 in China.
Very glad to see that there is a growing engagement about the space industry. When kids are excited about space, it starts to really develop more interest and plant the seeds for future missions. Also very happy to see that more countries than ever are getting into the space race.